New Orleans at Atlanta +1: The Falcons are rounding into form with three straight wins, while the Saints have been treading water the past four weeks, alternating wins and losses. New Orleans has never quite reached their Super Bowl level, they dropped a little last year, then suffered that embarrassing playoff loss to the worst playoff team ever, the 7-9 Seahawks. . .and the deterioration has continued this year. Their run offense and run defense have both been slipping. As long as the Falcons don't fall in love with Julio Jones and forget to give the ball to Turner 20+ times, they should be able move past the Saints in the NFC South. Atlanta.
Houston at Tampa Bay +3 1/2: Houston has finally taken control of the shitty Manning-less AFC South with three straight wins over crappy teams. In the absence of Andre Johnson, the Texans have used a power run game to trample three weaklings. But these are, after all, the Xanax Texans, and their history shows they cannot handle prosperity. Now they go on the road to play Tampa who have lost three out of four, all to playoff caliber teams. The Bucs wildcard chances are beginning to slip away--they need a win, and now luckily the schedule serves them up the Texans, just as the Texans are due for a breakdown. Tampa Bay.
Denver +3 1/2 at Kansas City: Big Game in the AFC West, the ultimate in NFL parity, impossible to predict what any of the four up-and-down teams in this division will do from week-to-week. Somehow the Broncos managed to beat Oakland last week with Tim Tebow running a turtle speed option offense. Kansas City, after an amazing four game win streak, amazing because they were beaten black-and-blue in their first three games and suffered three killer injuries, reverted to their season-opening form and got a Sandusky-style ass beating from the winless Miami Dolphins--at home, no less. If Denver wins this game, all four teams in the AFC West will be within 1 game of each other. Heads, Broncos. Tails, Chiefs. Kansas City.
Buffalo +5 1/2 at Dallas: Buffalo is tied with New England and the Jets for first in the AFC North, but their high-powered offense has been sputtering lately, as they've lost three out of five after their red-hot 3 - 0 start. The Bills have the look of a team that knows the jig is up. Dallas' rookie running back DeMarco Murray has been unstoppable, averaging almost 7 yards per carry, and now he faces a weak Buffalo run defense. No excuse for the Cowboys to allow Romo to fuck this game up, just give Murray the ball 25 times and they win E-Z. Dallas.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati +3: Are the Bengals for real? Who knows, they've only played two games against teams with winning records. They lost to the 49ers and beat the Bills. The *experts* apparently think the Bengals are frauds, giving them points at home. The Steelers 4 game win streak ended last week when they refused to take a game Baltimore tried to give away. The Steelers have slowly evolved into Air Roethlisberger, as their run game gets weaker and weaker. Mendenhall only had 13 carries against the Ravens, while Big Ben was tossing it 37 times. That's not how the Steelers win Super Bowls. That's how the Steelers get in the playoffs as a Wild Card, and get sent home early. This game will be the perfect example. The Bengals have the number 2 run defense in the NFL, so the Steelers won't even bother trying to run, they'll have Big Ben throw it 40 times, but the Bengals will be sitting back and snag 2 or 3 INTs. Meanwhile, Cincy's offense will run plowhorse Cedric Benson 20 or 25 times against the Steelers, and while he probably won't get more than 75 yards, they'll win the game with defense, special teams, turnovers and field position. Cincinnati.
New York Giants +3 at San Francisco: The Giants are the worst 6 - 2 team in the NFL. They can't run, and they can't stop the run. But luck and an easy schedule have them at 6 - 2. The 49ers are a rock solid team, no luck involved in their 7 - 1 start. They are the number 6 rushing team, and number 1 in rush defense. They 49ers have won 5 in a row. . .but I get the feeling they are due for a bad game. You rarely see teams in the NFL play as mistake-free as the 49ers week-after-week. So you have a game in which the Giants have had more than their share of good luck, against a team due for some bad luck. New York Giants.
Detroit +3 at Chicago: The Bears have won three in a row, riding Matt Forte's hot streak, since losing to the Lions. The Lions have lost 2 out of 3, and have never had much success against Forte. The Lions never play very well at Soldier Field, dumb penalties, turnovers, missed field goals, and the last time they played there, Julius Peppers broke Mathilda Stafford's shoulder, and then the zebras took away Calvin Johnson's game-winning td catch. Watch Jim Schwartz closely on the sidelines in this one. Chicago.
New England +1 at New York Jets: This is an E-Z one to pick. Bet the house on this one. It's as simple as this: New England is on the decline, while the Jets are on the rise. Jerry Sandusky has a better chance of being elected to the College Football Hall of Fame than the Patriots winning this game. New York Jets.
Yes, Atlanta is finally going with their talents and running the football. I like Julio a lot and think the Falcons did well to trade up for him, but they still aren't a passing team. If anything, Jones takes the pressure off the running game.
ReplyDeleteHow in hell football teams with good runners and good run-blocking don't run 35 times a game is beyond me. Shit, look at the Vikings. How can you have Adrian Peterson and not get a reputation for being a smash-mouth team? The ghost of Norm Van Broklin who couldn't win with Tarkenton.
I like the Bengals because of their defense, their helmets (Starting Lineup had these little figurines in the late 80's I'd play with; I had a Boomer Esiason that I'd smash with Lawrence Taylor and Esiason's helmet would fly off. It was the coolest thing. My Joe Montana was left pristine), and their red-headed quarterback proving a redhead CAN play qb in the NFL.
They just don't know how to call the cops after witnessing ass-rapes.
I pulled Tebow as my fantasy starter this week against KC. Their defense will have his option stuff figured out, forcing him to throw. I believe they run a 3-4 in KC, which is great. Drop the MLB's into coverage with Mike playing loose-reads, and rush the OLB's. Play the safeties closer than usual. There isn't a deep threat in Denver.
It may get ugly.
Which Jay Cutler shows up in Chicago?
Is Tom Brady's domination over?