NCAA Week 2

The Good (versus the Good):

Alabama at Penn State +10.  I’m not sold on Alabama having an offense capable of a BCS title game trip.  They struggled running the ball against a MAC team, and they’re still somewhat unsettled at QB.  Still Penn State is only getting 10 points in the latest line, and PSU is also unsettled at QB.  I’m very tempted to take the Embarrassing Spectacle(s) (Paterno) in this one.  But 10 is not quite enough. Alabama.

Mississippi State at Auburn +7.  Mississippi State was the best team I saw play against Michigan last year.  They could have easily whipped Ohio State. . .but then again, I saw them in RichRod’s last game, when the team had already given up on him--so was Mississippi State really that good?  Auburn at home getting 7?  Auburn was lucky to win last week against a 4 win Utah State team.  But still. . .at home, getting 7 in a conference game.  Tough call.  I’ll go with Auburn to cover.

South Carolina at Georgia +3.  South Carolina only giving 3 against a Georgia team that was beaten fairly easily at home by Boise.  That tells me nobody really thinks South Carolina is truly an elite team.  This is probably the key game for Coach Richt. . .lose, and the noise will be LOUD, the season will become nothing more than speculation on who the next coach at GA will be. . .win, and he has a couple easy games coming up in which to start a job-saving win streak.  But when a coach goes stale, it’s tough for his team to suddenly start playing crisp.  South Carolina.

BYU + 7 at Texas.  BYU managed to beat a poor SEC team on the road last week, and now plays one of the kingpins of the most-overrated conference, the Big Whatever It Currently Is, Texas.  Texas is soft.  But still, BYU should be getting a little more than 7.  But Texas is soft.  I’ll take BYU.

Utah +8 1/2 at USC. USC barely beat Big 10 doormat Minnesota last week.  Utah is always tougher than people think.  And besides, Utah State almost beat Auburn on the road last week, and Auburn is better than USC, and Utah is better than Utah State.  How’s that for expert analysis?  Utah.

Notre Dame at Michigan +3 1/2.  These aren’t two good teams, but they have played very entertaining games the last two years, and the first night game in Ann Arbor should be worth a watch.  Notre Dame would have been a bigger favorite had they beat South Florida last week. Actually, they did beat South Florida, but gave the game away with five turnovers.  So now Michigan only gets 3 1/2.  Notre Dame should be an easy cover.

The Bad (versus the Good):

Toledo +19 at Ohio State.  Toledo’s actually not a bad team. . .they’re probably second to Northern Illinois in the MAC.  But they are stepping up in class here, playing the Buckeyes.  Toledo has a very good offense, and IF they could somehow score a few points early in the game, and put some pressure on the Buckeye QBs to produce, they could hang in long enough to cover.  I’m not convinced the Buckeyes will not miss Tressel, though it might not be evident until League play.  Toledo.

Oregon State +21 at Wisconsin.  The Beavers lost at home to an FCS team last week.  Wisconsin is always a little over-rated, in my opinion.  And even though they got themselves a fancy negro QB this year, I think they are once again a little over-rated.  Enough for Oregon State to cover.

The Ugly (versus the Good)

There are some really ugly games set for week 2.  South Dakota St at Illinois. . .New Mexico at Ar-Kansas. . .Northwestern State at LSU. . .Woffod at Clemson. . .but this may be the UGLY Game of the Year:

Charleston Southern +53 1/2 at Florida State.  Charleston Southern lost 62 - 0 last week to Central Florida, and Central is not exactly a powerhouse, and now Charleston has to play at Florida State.  This may be like Coach Taylor’s first game at East Dillon, where he had to forfeit at half-time just to get his players home in one piece.  Last week I said Alabama should be ashamed of itself if it had to throw on Kent St, and it turned out they had to. . .but really, now, there is no reason for Florida St to throw a single pass in this game, unless they want to score 100 points.  This may be the biggest joke game of the season.  Florida St could cover by half-time.